Look at it quickly! Customs: the gap between supply and demand of beef and mutton in China is further enlarged

2020-01-06
1、 The main characteristics of beef and mutton import in China from January to August this year < br / >
(1) Monthly import fell and the average import price continued to rise. In August this year, Tianjin Port imported 54000 tons of beef and mutton, up 11.9% year-on-year, down 18.4% month on month; the average import price was 31.7 yuan per kilogram, up 14.3% year on year, up 5.7% month on month (below), up 14.5% compared with January 2019, with a significant increase in the year. At the same time, this price is the highest import price of beef and mutton since January 2016.

(2) General mode of trade is the main force of import. From January to August this year, 460000 tons of beef and mutton were imported by Tianjin port through general trade, an increase of 46.9%, accounting for 99.1% of the total amount of beef and mutton imported by Tianjin port in the same period (the same below).

(3) Private enterprises are the main force of import. From January to August this year, Tianjin Port private enterprises imported 355000 tons of beef and mutton, an increase of 38.2%, accounting for 76.5%.

(4) Mainly imported from New Zealand, Uruguay and Argentina. From January to August this year, Tianjin Port imported 100000 tons of beef and mutton from New Zealand, an increase of 60.9%; 102000 tons from Uruguay, an increase of 38.4%; 93000 tons from Argentina, an increase of 98.2%; the three accounted for 63.7% in total.



2、 The reasons for the above characteristics of beef and mutton import at Tianjin port from January to August of this year < br / >
(1) Affected by the long-term and complexity of swine plague, the demand for pork substitutes such as beef and mutton increased. It has been a year since the outbreak of swine fever in Africa in China in August 2018. The complexity and long-term nature of the outbreak is far beyond expectations.
The impact on the food and meat industry, as well as the consumption habits of Chinese people, has gradually emerged. It is predicted that the probability of 15% - 20% decrease in the National Pork Supply in 2019 will be greatly increased. This will increase the demand for other meat, and the price of beef and mutton will be able to support the rise. At the same time, the greatly reduced pork supply cannot be made up entirely by increasing imports. The reduction of supply will further stimulate the consumption of other meat by residents, and the demand for meat substitutes such as chicken, beef and mutton will increase substantially.

(2) Strong export demand from New Zealand has led to a significant increase in beef and mutton exports from New Zealand to China. Due to geopolitical uncertainty, large-scale drought and animal disease outbreak and other adverse factors, the international beef and mutton trade market in 2019 may be unstable. However, due to the weak NZD and strong export demand, the price of beef and mutton is expected to maintain a historical high in 2019, and the total export sales will exceed S $3 billion.